There is a good deal of money to be won this week on DraftKings including a top prize of $30k from the primary tournament. DK also has a lot of Qualifier contests available this week, in which the final event will pay $50k into 1st if you did qualify to perform inside. I’ll be chasing those as well since we’ve not ever had a $50k 1st place prize and I want it. I do think we have a fun card this Saturday and that I am all set to enter this 3-week break using a winning night in UFC 227. Here are a couple plays I like this weekend together with my fade of the week.
Money Game play of the week — Demetrious Johnson ($9,400)
Demetrious Johnson is the most powerful play in most DFS MMA and he’s the maximum ceiling as well. DJ is the P4P best fight in the world (not counting Jon Jones) and he’s already beat Cejudo once before. This is the very first person I’m plugging in my cash LU this week and I suggest you do the same. DJ is almost sure to score at 100-points at a win, and he has a -550 gambling line stating he should find the win again here. Play it safe and use DJ in cash. You can pile this fight as well, however I think DJ is a must.
GPP drama of the week — Thiago Santos ($9,200)
This is a good struggle to target this week because it probably will not go to a choice. Holland just fought the Contender Series that a few weeks back and did not get a contract. But today he’s about the PPV against one of the scariest strikers from the branch. The ITD line for Santos is now -210 and the below 1.5 rounds betting line is -160. This tells me Vegas thinks this battle ends early and Santos is the guy that should pick up the finish. At $9.2k, he readily pays that price tag off at a 1st round win and I presume he has a good shot at doing exactly that. I really don’t care for him in cash game formats however because both men have quite lower flooring, so this really is a GPP only play for me personally.
Underdog play of this week — Brett Johns ($7,400)
I think everyone is writing off Brett Johns after his loss to Aljo Sterling and that’s why he’s so economical on DraftKings this weekend. Together with the wrestling fashion Johns brings to the table, he’s 100+ upside in a decision triumph. Obviously, we are concerned about him becoming caught in a guillotine when he shoots for takedowns, but if he can avoid I believe he could win this fight and 10x his wages with a triumph. I don’t think Johns will wish to strike with Munhoz to get 15-minutes so I really do believe he is going to be shooting for takedowns. Those takedowns could get him submitted, or else they may get him a triumph over the scorecards. However, that makes him a boom or bust play and that is why he is a good underdog to pick in GPPs this week.
Fade of this week — Danielle Taylor ($7,500)
Even at an affordable $7.5k on DraftKings, Taylor will still require a finish to cover that price tag off with her style. She’s the worst fashion potential for scoring DraftKings point and even if she’s a win here she could wind up scoring significantly less than some losers on the card. Taylor will be the least owned fighter in GPPs this week, so in the event that you want to invest your money on a 115 pound woman using a”punchers chance” of winning you a GPP, then you will be very contrarian taking that route. But I have no interest in investing my money into that I will have Taylor in 0 of my lineups this week. If I had been making 150 lineups, I’d still full vanish Taylor here.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight about the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
http://mmaoddsbreaker.com/mmaob-premium/upcoming-picks
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